Special Notice

I recently had the pleasure of sitting down with Kornel Szrejber, host of one of Canada’s top personal finance podcasts — Build Wealth Canada. We had a fantastic conversation about my experiences navigating stock market crashes over the decades, and the lessons investors can take away from those turbulent times.

If you’ve ever wondered how to stay calm and make smart decisions during market downturns, this episode is for you.

Give it a listen — I think you’ll find it both insightful and reassuring.

The Week in Review

Weekly Market Recap: U.S. and Canada

The markets held up strong this week, and I mean really strong. Tech led the charge, and the major U.S. indexes saw their best weekly stretch in a long time. You could feel the sentiment shift mid-week, and from there, it was a steady climb into the weekend.

The Nasdaq 100 spiked 6.81%, and the S&P 500 wasn’t far behind, jumping 5.27%. The Dow managed an impressive 3.41% and the TSX, although the ‘laggard’ this week, still rose a very nice 2.52%. Bottom line, investors loved what they saw from the April CPI release, and that optimism showed up across the board.

Major Economic Stories

Investors finally got the inflation report they’ve been waiting for. Headline CPI came in soft, core held steady, and markets wasted no time pricing in a more dovish Fed. The only small potential downside was the retail sales report, but that didn’t hold investors back.

Here’s what happened this week.

US Inflation Falls, Biggest Drop Since 2021

Headline inflation cooled in April, offering a welcome surprise for markets.

Prices rose 2.3% year-over-year, the lowest since early 2021, and below forecasts. Falling gas and food prices did the heavy lifting, but shelter costs remain sticky.

• Headline CPI dropped to 2.3%, down from 2.4% in March.

• Gasoline prices fell 11.8%, deepening March’s 9.8% drop.

• Natural gas spiked 15.7%, offsetting some energy relief.

• Shelter costs rose 0.3% month-over-month, still a key driver.

• Full Release Here

Core Inflation Holds, Still Sticky but Stable

Core inflation stayed at 2.8%, in line with the consensus. It’s still higher than what the Fed would like to see, but at least it wasn’t a surprise for markets.

Shelter was once again the main culprit, while auto insurance and education costs added pressure. The Fed won’t cut just yet, but this was still a step in the right direction.

• Core CPI stayed at 2.8%, matching expectations.

• Shelter made up two-thirds of the year-over-year increase.

• Motor vehicle insurance jumped 6.4%, driving services inflation.

• Monthly core CPI rose 0.2%, just under forecast.

• Read the Full Release

Retail Sales Slow to 0.1%, Consumers Start to Pull Back

After March’s blowout, April’s retail data showed some fatigue.

Consumers dialed back spending after tariff headlines spooked the market. Core retail sales, used in GDP, actually declined.

• Headline retail sales rose just 0.1%, vs 1.7% in March.

• Core retail sales fell 0.2%, missing expectations.

• Tariff talk likely cooled sentiment, hitting discretionary buys.

• Biggest gain: restaurants (1.2%), biggest loss: books/music (-2.5%).

• Read the Full Report here.

Key Takeaways From this Week’s Economic News

Markets Rally on “Just Right” Inflation Data

This week’s CPI report hit the Goldilocks zone, cool enough to soothe rate fears, but not so weak that it screamed recession. Investors have been waiting for confirmation that inflation is trending in the right direction without killing the economy. April’s numbers finally delivered that relief.

A modest drop in headline inflation and steady core prices were enough to ignite a broad-based rally. It’s obvious that the markets are hypersensitive to the inflation story, and this report gave bulls the upper hand, at least for now. If next month confirms the trend, we could see the Fed start laying the groundwork for a summer pivot.

Stubborn Core Inflation Might Delay Rate Cuts

As we just saw, headline inflation was down, but don’t let the market reaction (strong bullish sentiment) fool you. Core inflation hasn’t cracked just yet. Coming in at 2.8% in April, it’s still well above the Fed’s 2% target, and the usual suspects (shelter, insurance, education) are keeping it sticky. For policymakers, this is the balancing act; they want to ease rates, but not at the cost of reigniting inflation. With the ongoing tariff threat, that’s a big concern.

If the headline inflation trend keeps moving sideways (or even better, down) the Fed will be able to live with elevated core inflation. But if shelter, which plays such a significant role, doesn’t cool soon, rate cuts could get pushed further out. That’s the tension beneath this week’s market optimism. A soft CPI is good, but a sustained cooldown in core is what’ll unlock actual policy change.

Retail Sales Hint at a Cautious Consumer

After a blowout March, April retail data was a reality check. Consumers showed signs of caution last month, no doubt spooked by tariff headlines. Restaurants and home improvement spending held up, but discretionary categories like books, clothing, and electronics saw pullbacks.

What jumped out at me most is that core retail sales (the ones used in GDP) actually declined. That doesn’t mean it’s time to panic, but it is something to watch heading into Q2. If consumers are pulling back, earnings revisions might not be far behind. It’s something to watch, especially if the inflation narrative starts to shift again.

THIS WEEK’S POLL QUESTION
(Results in Next Week’s Newsletter)

This Pulse edition includes a story of Walmart warning that everyday essentials, from bananas to baby gear, are getting more expensive. With costs rising, retailers are passing more of the burden onto consumers. This week, I ask whether you’re adjusting your purchase decisions due to Walmart and other stores raising prices.

LAST WEEK’S POLL RESULTS

Lots of thoughtful and interesting comments in last week’s poll responses. Almost two-thirds do believe that a repeat of the GFC is somewhat likely, as we continue to struggle through these tough economic challenges.

Reader Comments

Somewhat Likely

"2008...Canadian banks were not involved in that Ponzi scheme, so I think we got off fairly lightly. We won't get off lightly this time and will be involved closely. Is it going to be more like the mid 80's, maybe? " — mrrobpog

"Hopefully this makes sense... While I think there's a "somewhat likely" chance of the stock market having a period similar to the 2008-style Financial Crisis, I doubt the cause will be a 2008-style financial crisis.
So somewhat likely to 'effect', but not likely to 'cause..." — callawayguy

"I have been watching the US market inflows & outflows which have not been promising for the US markets. Been watching the inflows & outflows for European & Asian markets. I believe that in a few months that the large outflows from US and the large inflows to Europe does not bode well for US. Add into that the increase cost of insuring the increasing US debt looks very much like bad news for the US markets & their allies are not supporting them. They are doing it all without the US." — entender1012

"My hope is sanity will rule the day, but I'm not betting on Trump and what he is capable of doing." — eccodog

"Thanks for the update Marc. It's looking pretty iffy with so much uncertainty!" — misadventure17

"The self-inflicted (DonnyT) tariff roller coaster is creating global instability. Thus, our financial waters (no, not the Gulf of Canada) will be turbulent. But I have faith in our new leadership and citizens overall, we can work to reset our financial pillars and move forward. Canada Strong! — susanwheelerhall

"Trump's erratic tariffs is going to cause supply chain issues, bankruptcies, etc. just like covid. It really depends on what he does, but it isn't looking good when foreign countries are dumping US bonds creating a strain on the USD. Trump doesn't seem to care about the market or the economy, so I'm leaning towards a repeat of the 2008 crisis at this time." — syoungconsultinginc

Not Likely at All

"It will be very bad for Canada, caused mainly by internal political overreach. The velocity of money will be negatively impacted by severe taxation. This will reduce the consumption of goods by the middle class with the results of a lower standard of living. Stagflation will be entrenched as food, fuel and shelter will be where money left over from taxation will be spent.
It will be a repeat of the 70's style financial crisis not the 2008 style. Instead of the world running out of oil crisis it is the world is being destroyed by carbon crisis. The 70's crisis was proven false, and the current carbon crisis will be proven false. My opinion. I have lived through both." — belton.dave1

"This is not as drastic as 2008 crisis, however it will be longer lasting unless there are deals reached." — parmsingh40

THE FEDERAL BUDGET
Ottawa Passes on Budget; Opts for Fall Update Instead

• No federal budget this year, just a “substantive” fall update.

• Finance Minister Champagne says fall allows time to assess Trump’s tariffs.

• Opposition leaders and economists say this delays accountability.

• Critics warn it could damage investor confidence and market credibility.

I’ll admit this one did catch me off-guard. Less than a month after the election, the Carney government confirmed it won’t table a 2025 budget. Instead, it’s promising a “substantive” fall economic statement sometime after Parliament returns in mid-September. That’s catching some attention because federal budgets aren’t really optional. They’re the economic blueprint. Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne insists the fall update will be more than a fiscal snapshot, and he says the delay gives Ottawa “runway” to assess the fallout from U.S. President Donald Trump’s new tariffs on Canadian imports. But this is a very unusual move, and markets don’t need any more uncertainty these days.

“Blank Cheque” or Strategic Delay?

Surprise, surprise, but opposition parties aren’t buying the government’s rationale. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre slammed the decision as reckless, saying “a budget is a plan,” and right now, there isn’t one. Scotiabank economist Derek Holt echoed that concern, calling it a “blank cheque” and warning that Canadians deserve to see the real fiscal picture. Bloc Québécois and NDP leaders also raised alarms, saying even a scaled-down fiscal update should have landed before summer. Instead, we’re getting four weeks of Parliament before the summer break, and no budget talk until fall. That’s a long time to leave the country’s finances in the dark.

What to Watch

If the fall update delivers meaningful policy and spending clarity, the markets might forgive the delay, but if it’s vague or light on numbers, we can no doubt expect stronger criticism.

Read More Here

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COMMERCE AND TARIFFS
Even Walmart Can’t Absorb This, Tariffs Push Prices Higher

• Walmart warns rising tariffs will raise prices on essentials.

• Baby gear, groceries, and electronics already seeing increases.

• Company says it can’t fully shield consumers from inflation anymore.

• Back-to-school season could bring the biggest sticker shock yet.

Walmart built its empire on keeping prices low, but tariffs just threw a big wrench in that strategy. Company executives warned this week that prices are already rising across product lines, and it’s only going to get worse through the summer. From bananas to car seats, the cost of basics is heading higher, and there’s only so much Walmart can do to cushion the blow.

Tariffs on Chinese goods, some as high as 145% before being walked back to 30%, are squeezing both suppliers and retailers. Walmart says the impact has already hit shelves and will ramp up in June and July.

Chief financial officer John David Rainey pretty much called it what it is.

What’s Getting Hit?

As I noted, the price pressure isn’t just limited to discretionary items, which would be one thing. Essentials are getting more expensive too. Bananas jumped 8%, and car seats could soon cost an extra $100. Two-thirds of Walmart’s merchandise is U.S.-sourced, but electronics, toys, and baby gear still rely heavily on China. And tariffs aren’t the only pressure; shipping costs are spiking as companies rush to beat future price hikes.

Walmart isn’t panicking, and it reported solid earnings and a 4.5% same-store sales bump, but it also didn’t issue profit guidance, citing “chaotic” U.S. policy shifts. We’re seeing a lot of companies suspending guidance lately, but with a giant like Walmart, I think that should make us sit up and pay attention.

Why Investors Should Care

Walmart’s warning is a signal. If they can’t fully absorb costs, few can. This isn’t just about one retailer, it’s a sign inflation could roar back if trade tensions keep escalating.

Read More Here

CREDIT RATING
Moody’s Downgrades U.S. Credit, Debt Warnings Get Louder

• Moody’s cut the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1.

• Cites rising deficits, growing debt costs, and political gridlock.

• U.S. now downgraded by all three major rating agencies.

• Long-term projections show deficits nearing 9% of GDP by 2035.

Moody’s has finally said what the world already knew; America’s debt problem isn’t getting better, it’s getting worse. On Friday, the agency downgraded the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, making it the last of the big three agencies to pull the plug. Moody’s does still praise the U.S. for its economic size and global dollar dominance, but it says the fiscal math just doesn’t add up.

This downgrade also has a strong political twist to it. Moody’s specifically pointed to Washington’s inability to do anything meaningful about rising deficits. The numbers are ugly: deficits hit 6.4% of GDP in 2024, and Moody’s sees that number ballooning to nearly 9% by 2035. That’s before factoring in interest costs or entitlement spending growth.

Dysfunction Is the Bigger Risk

What really pushed the downgrade? Dysfunction. Moody’s cited the repeated failure of U.S. lawmakers to manage deficits, and points to everything from failed budget votes to partisan tax policy. Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, which Republicans want to extend, would add another $4 trillion to the primary deficit over the next decade. Meanwhile, Democrats aren’t cutting spending anytime soon.

The good news in all if this, I suppose, is that this downgrade doesn’t mean an immediate crisis, as U.S. debt is still considered rock-solid globally. But it does raise borrowing costs over time, especially if investors start to lose patience. And now that all three ratings agencies are sounding the same alarm, it’s no longer just background noise, it’s something that can’t be ignored.

Read the full story here.

THE BEST OF SOCIAL MEDIA
Blossom Celebrates at the TSX

📈Blossom Social was invited to close the TSX Markets this Monday, to celebrate its record breaking equity crowdfunding raise.

2025 raise in a snapshot:

• Raised $1.93M in just 6 hours—the largest and fastest equity crowdfunding campaign in FrontFundr history, breaking their own 2024 record.

• Attracted 1,104 investors, with 88% from the retail community, making it the second most widely participated equity crowdfunding campaign in Canadian history.

• Closed out a $3M funding round, demonstrating strong investor conviction and market momentum.

• Set a new platform record for e-transfer volume: 521 investors contributed $642K via e-transfer in 24 hours, making it the campaign’s most popular payment method.

• Saw strong geographic and demographic traction: over 50% of investors were from Ontario, where Blossom is actively expanding, and 40% were aged 18–29, signaling strong Gen Z and Millennial engagement.

• Garnered national coverage in Techcouver, Vancouver Tech Journal, and LOI Venture, amplifying awareness and credibility.

Join Blossom for Free!  If you want to see what I have in my portfolio, look me up. My username is MarcB.

TRAVEL, PT1
Snowbird Bill Could Backfire, More Time, More Tax Trouble

• U.S. bill would allow Canadians to stay up to 240 days.

• Proposal only applies to those with U.S. property or long-term rentals.

• Experts warn it could trigger U.S. tax residency and compliance issues.

• Provincial healthcare eligibility and new visa rules may also conflict.

If you just read the headlines on the Canadian Snowbird Act, it looks like a win: Canadians 50+ could stay in the U.S. up to 240 days a year, up from the current 182, without a visa. For retirees with sun-state homes, that’s music to their ears. But a number of financial experts are already waving red flags.

The bill includes a vague assurance that Canadians would keep non-resident tax status. The problem, though, is that the U.S. tax code isn’t on the same page. If you spend too many days south of the border, you can trigger something called the “substantial presence test,” which could classify you as a U.S. tax resident. That means more paperwork, more headaches, and possibly dual taxation.

A Tangle of Tax and Travel Rules

And it gets worse. Even if the bill passes, it doesn’t override a new U.S. rule requiring non-visa visitors, including Canadians, to register if staying 30 days or more. Lawyers say the Snowbird Act doesn’t clarify whether Canadians would be exempt, and if that’s not enough, longer U.S. stays could put provincial healthcare eligibility back home in jeopardy. In Ontario, for example, residents must spend at least 153 days in-province each year to keep OHIP coverage.

The bottom line is that while the bill might reopen the door to U.S. travel for cautious snowbirds, the legal and financial considerations can’t be ignored. Until the details are sorted out, I’d suggest you should be careful before extending your stay, which could be walking you straight into a tax trap headache.

Full Story Here

TRAVEL, PT2
Canadian Travel to U.S. Plunges

• Return trips to Canada from the U.S. fell sharply in April.

• Air travel down 19.9%; land crossings dropped 35.2% year-over-year.

• StatsCan says total travel into Canada fell for the third straight month.

• Trump’s tariff threats and border anxiety are driving the decline.

Ok, so the rules regarding U.S. stays may be changing, as we just read, but on the flip side, Canadians aren’t heading south like we used to, and it’s not just the weather. New StatsCan data shows return travel from the U.S. dropped sharply in April, with air travel down nearly 20% and car crossings down over 35%. That’s part of a broader trend where Canadian travelers are rethinking cross-border visits, and many are opting to stay home.

Overall, travel into Canada, both returning residents and international visitors, fell 15.2% in April, the third straight monthly decline. U.S. visitors are also scaling back, and over the same time period, American air travel to Canada dropped 5.5%, and road trips fell over 10%.

Trump, Tariffs, and Trust Issues

Something that probably can’t really be quantified, but there’s little doubt the drop isn’t just about cost; it’s also about sentiment. Canadians are growing wary of U.S. border policies, which has seen increased screening, detention risk, and a generally more aggressive posture under the Trump administration. Add in talk of annexation (yes, that’s still something that has me troubled) and a heated trade war, and you get a recipe for a travel pullback.

Canadian households are voting with their wallets. Some are deliberately avoiding U.S. vacations and have chosen to spend their money closer to home. It will be interesting to see how long that trend sticks.

Full Story Here

OTHER NEWS FROM THE PAST WEEK

Uber Wants More Help Getting Drivers Into EVs
Uber’s push to electrify its fleet is facing high costs and driver resistance. The company is asking governments to step in with more subsidies and infrastructure support.

Ticketmaster Forced to Show All-In Prices for Concert Tickets
After public pressure and regulatory scrutiny, Ticketmaster will now display full ticket prices upfront, ending the frustrating practice of “junk fees” at checkout. Fans and lawmakers are calling it a win.

Thailand Seizes 200 Tons of Illegal E-Waste at Port
Thai customs officials confiscated over 200 tons of illegally imported electronic waste, highlighting a growing global problem as developing nations become dumping grounds for rich countries’ trash.

Starbucks Baristas Strike Over New Dress Code
Over 1,000 Starbucks workers walked off the job in protest of a new dress code and ongoing union negotiations, escalating tensions between management and organized labour.

Trump’s Franchise Empire Expands in Middle East, Raising Ethics Flags
Trump’s brand is growing fast in the Gulf region through licensing deals, but critics warn it poses ethical concerns amid his ongoing presidential campaign and global influence.

Netflix Ad Tier Nears 100M Users, Growth Beats Expectations
Netflix’s ad-supported plan now has 94 million monthly users, showing strong growth as more viewers trade premium pricing for cheaper, ad-backed options.

Oh, Citigroup—the banking behemoth that once made a $900 million mistake. In 2020, Citigroup intended to send a modest interest payment to lenders of Revlon, the cosmetics company. Instead, due to a clerical error, they wired the entire loan amount—nearly $900 million—to the lenders. Even more astonishing, some recipients refused to return the funds, leading to a legal battle. At the end of the day, Citigroup reached a settlement with those lenders, leading to the dismissal of the case. This resolution concluded over two years of litigation and allowed Citigroup to recover the remaining $504 million of the mistaken payment.

Market Movers

S&P 500 Returns | Week At-a-Glance

TSX Returns | Week At-a-Glance

Top 10 Weekly Gainers

Top 10 Weekly Losers

10 Most Overbought Stocks

10 Most Oversold Stocks

The Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) can provide a signal that suggest a stock is either overbought or oversold.
📈A stock that has an RSI over 70 is considered to be in “overbought” territory. This might suggest that the stock is due for a pullback, however it is not a recommendation to sell.
📉A stock that is trading with an RSI below 30 is considered to be in “oversold” territory. This might suggest that the stock is due for a recovery, however it is not a recommendation to buy. Always perform your own due diligence.

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