RBC’s Leadership Shake-Up

Poll Question: Are the Canadian Telecom's a Good Buy?

The Week in Review

Weekly Market Recap: U.S. and Canada

Despite a bit of a dip late on Friday, stocks moved mostly higher this week, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500 Index, and Nasdaq Composite all moving to record intraday highs. The biggest advance of the week was notched by the small-cap Russell 2000 Index, which gained 6.00%, marking its best week since early November. Canada’s TSX also saw strong gains this week, up just under 3%.

Week ending July 12, 2024

The unofficial start of earnings season kicked off Friday, with second-quarter earnings releases from JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup. Shares of all three fell at the open of trading, with JPMorgan and Wells Fargo both missing estimates and the latter cutting its outlook.

S&P 500 Returns | Week At-a-Glance

Week ending July 12, 2024 | Market Cap >$100B

TSX Returns | Week At-a-Glance

Week ending July 12, 2024 | Market Cap >$10B

COMMENTARY

It was a relatively slow week for major economic news, but we did get CPI data for the US and the question now is what affect will this surprise data have on the deliberations of the Federal Reserve board?

🏦 U.S. Consumer Price Index

The annual inflation rate in the US fell for the third consecutive month to 3% in June, now the lowest since June 2023 and down from 3.3% in May. Consensus expectations were 3.1%.

U S Consumer Price Index | June 2024

On a month-over-month basis, the CPI fell unexpectedly by 0.1% from May, marking the first decline since May 2020. Expectations were for a 0.1% rise.

Meanwhile, annual core inflation also slowed to 3.3%, the lowest since April 2021, down from 3.4% in May, with the monthly core rate decreasing to 0.1% from 0.2%, below the expected 0.2%.

Full details in the story below.

📈 U.S. Consumer Confidence

The Consumer Sentiment Index fell for the fourth consecutive month in June to 66, the lowest since November, down from 68.2 in June and well below the forecast of 68.5.

Consumer Expectations | June 2024

Key Statistics:

  • Current Conditions Gauge: Dropped to 64.1 from 65.9.

  • Expectations Subindex: Decreased to 67.2 from 69.6.

  • Year-Ahead Inflation Expectations: Decreased to 2.9% from 3%.

  • Five-Year Inflation Expectations: Decreased to 2.9% from 3%.

Nearly half of consumers remain concerned about high prices and ongoing economic uncertainty as an upcoming election approaches.

🌰 Overall Impact, in a Nutshell

Some of the key takeaways from this week’s economic reports:

  • The decline in CPI potentially paves the way for monetary easing by the Federal Reserve.

  • This slowdown in core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is a sign that underlying inflationary pressures might be moderating.

  • The continued drop in consumer confidence might be a concern. This can lead to reduced consumer spending, which may impact economic growth.

THIS WEEK’S POLL QUESTION
(Results in Next Week’s Newsletter)

In an article to follow, I talk about the recent drop in Canadian telecom stocks, and ponder whether a buying opportunity may be presenting itself. What do you think? Answer this week’s poll question and share your thoughts!

With the current dip in telecom stocks, do you see this as a good buying opportunity for a rebound?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

LAST WEEK’S POLL RESULTS

It was a photo finish in last week’s poll question, with the No side winning by a nose. Thanks to all who voted, and a warm welcome to those who came over from our YouTube channel this past week.

Most Overbought Stocks

The Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) can provide a signal that suggest a stock is either overbought or oversold. A stock that has an RSI over 70 is considered to be in “overbought” territory. This might suggest that the stock is due for a pullback, however it is not a recommendation to sell. Always perform your own due diligence.

Week ending July 12, 2024 | Most Overbought Stocks, based on 14-Day RSI

Most Oversold Stocks

A stock that is trading with an RSI below 30 is considered to be in “oversold” territory. This might suggest that the stock is due for a recovery, however it is not a recommendation to buy. Always perform your own due diligence.

Week ending July 12, 2024 | Most Oversold Stocks, based on 14-Day RSI

THE ECONOMY & INFLATION
US Inflation Rate Drops Slightly

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released June’s US inflation report on Thursday and it shows a slight decline of 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis. Over the past 12 months, the all-items index has risen by 3.0%.

🛑 Energy and Food Prices

Gasoline prices fell by 3.8% in June, following a similar drop in May. The overall energy index decreased by 2.0% for the second consecutive month. Food prices saw a modest rise of 0.2%, with food away from home increasing by 0.4% and food at home going up by 0.1%.

📉 Core Inflation Trends

The index for all items less food and energy edged up by 0.1% in June, the slowest monthly growth since January 2021. Key contributors to this rise included shelter, motor vehicle insurance, household furnishings, medical care, and personal care. However, on a positive note, prices for airline fares, used cars and trucks, and communication services declined.

🏡 Shelter and Medical Care

Shelter costs rose by 0.2%, with rent and owners' equivalent rent both increasing by 0.3%. Medical care services saw a slight uptick of 0.2%, while motor vehicle insurance jumped by 0.9%.

💡 Notable Monthly Changes

  • Gasoline: -3.8%

  • Electricity: -0.7%

  • Natural Gas: +2.4%

  • Airline Fares: -5.0%

  • Used Cars and Trucks: -1.5%

  • New Vehicles: -0.2%

💡 12-Month Overview

  • Energy Index: +1.0%

  • Food Index: +2.2%

  • Shelter Index: +5.2%

  • Motor Vehicle Insurance: +19.5%

The BLS report also noted that the recent uptick in pricing for shelter and other essentials has largely driven the overall increase in the all-items index.

The next CPI release is on August 14, 2024.

THANK YOU TO OUR SPONSOR

Harvest Increases Monthly Cash Distributions for ETFs

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These increases aim to provide a reasonable and sustainable distribution yield while offering the potential for long-term capital appreciation through each ETF's investment mandate.

"Harvest takes pride in our ETFs' long-term record of steady monthly cash distributions, and we are pleased to announce these increases as an important part of the ETFs' total return to unitholders,"

Michael Kovacs | Harvest President and CEO

Take advantage of Harvest's newly increased monthly distributions to secure a dependable income stream and achieve long-term financial growth.

Stay invested and grow with Harvest ETFs.

For more details, visit Harvest Portfolios Group Inc.

BANKING
RBC Shakes Up Leadership, Splits Banking Unit

The Royal Bank of Canada announced this week that they're shaking things up at the top and splitting their largest division into two. This is one of the biggest reorganizations under CEO Dave McKay’s decade-long leadership.

Here’s what’s happening:

🚀 Leadership Changes

Neil McLaughlin, who’s been heading the personal and commercial (P&C) banking division, will now lead Wealth Management. Doug Guzman, who previously held that role, is stepping up as Deputy Chair while remaining on the executive team. Starting September 1st, Erica Nielsen will take over personal banking, and Sean Amato-Gauci will lead the commercial side.

McLaughlin's new role involves overseeing City National, RBC's significant U.S. acquisition from 2015.

RBC is also promoting Jennifer Publicover to the executive team, increasing the representation of women in their leadership.

“I’m personally energized by the opportunity to work with these extraordinary leaders in the coming years as they take on new roles and responsibilities on our Group Executive leadership team.”

Dave McKay | RBC CEO

📊 RBC’s Growth and Strategic Moves

RBC has been expanding, notably completing the acquisition of HSBC Holdings Plc’s Canadian division this year, adding over 4,000 employees and 100+ branches to their network.

Analyst John Aiken from Jefferies Financial sees these moves as McKay preparing for future leadership transitions:

“The moves, to me, imply that the clock is ticking but that a change is not imminent.”

John Aiken | Jefferies Financial

📉 Financial Stability and Future Outlook

RBC's spokesperson Edith Galinaitis noted the bank’s strong financial results and momentum post-HSBC deal.

“We are taking the opportunity to review our structure and talent to simplify the way we work, better position us to take advantage of our scale, speed up decision making, and elevate our leaders to deliver on strategic growth priorities with clients at the center.”

Edith Galinaitis | RBC Spokesperson

Looking ahead, RBC will operate under five business segments: personal banking, commercial banking, wealth management, insurance, and capital markets.

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RETAIL
Costco Raises Membership Fees for the First Time Since 2017

For the first time in six years, Costco is increasing its membership fees. Starting September 1st, a basic membership will jump from $60 to $65 annually, while a premium membership will rise from $120 to $130. This 8% hike will impact about 52 million memberships.

Here’s a closer look at the Details:

🚀 Membership Fee Hike

Costco announced the new fees on Wednesday, and it didn’t come as a total shock to most. Investors and analysts had been anticipating this move, considering Costco's pattern of raising fees roughly every five years. On the timing, Costco executives explained the delay was due to consumer inflation concerns and economic outlook uncertainties.

“The company delayed an increase amid consumer concerns about inflation and the economic outlook, which have eased some.”

Jennifer Bartashus | Bloomberg Intelligence analyst

📈 Costco’s Growth and Strategy

Membership income is crucial for Costco, enabling it to reinvest in operations and maintain low prices. Bartashus expects the renewal rates to remain steady despite the increase, noting that “the fee increase was expected and overdue from Costco’s usual five-year cadence.”

📉 Market Trends and Competitor Moves

Costco isn’t alone in this trend. Sam’s Club, a Walmart subsidiary, raised its membership fees last year, with basic memberships now costing $50 and premium ones $110. In their case, Walmart softened the blow by using their rewards program to offset the additional cost during the first year.

In addition to the fee hike, Costco has been expanding its footprint, adding more stores in the U.S. and overseas, and investing heavily in e-commerce. This strategic growth is strengthened by new leadership, with Gary Millerchip from Kroger Co. stepping in as the new CFO and Ron Vachris as CEO since January.

🌭 And, for you Costco food aficionados who may be worried, fear not. The Hotdog Combo isn’t part of the price hike strategy, so you’ll still be able to drop in for your $1.50 lunch, so long as you pay the higher membership fee to get in the door.

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COMMUNICATIONS
Canadian Telecom Stocks Poised for Rebound as Price Battle Slows

According to some analysts, Canada’s top telecom stocks, which have knocked down to multi-year lows, are now seen as ripe for a rebound. Some believe this dip presents a prime buying opportunity.

Here’s what’s happening:

🚀 Telecom Stock Slump

The S&P/TSX Composite’s communications index has been the worst performer this year, down nearly 16% since January. Major players like Rogers Communications, Telus, and BCE are trading near their lowest levels in years. Adam Shine from National Bank of Canada says that the companies' aggressive pricing strategies, especially after Rogers acquired Shaw Communications and Quebecor acquired Freedom Mobile, are hurting growth and share prices.

“This promotional intensity is weighing on growth and share prices,”

Adam Shine | National Bank

Are We Seeing An Investment Opportunity?

Drew McReynolds of RBC Capital Markets sees a silver lining in the share price slump of these companies.

“Given the recent heavy underperformance of the sector, we believe the stocks are poised for a bounce,”

Drew McReynolds | RBC Capital Markets

The upcoming second-quarter results, starting with Rogers on July 24, will be critical. Investors are looking for stable revenue growth, which could stem from more consistent pricing strategies.

📉 What I’m Doing

If you’re considering telecom stocks, this might be the moment to dive in. And I’ll share a tidbit of information that shouldn’t necessarily affect your decision. I’m going through my process of due diligence on BCE right now, and might just pull the trigger on a buy if I get to the level of confidence I need.

The sector may be positioned for a potential bounce back and with signs of pricing stabilization, there could be gains ahead for those willing to take a bite. (If you’re interested in knowing what I end up deciding, follow up on the Blossom app to keep track of my trades. )

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Market Movers

Top 10 Weekly Gainers

TSX, NYSE & Nasdaq Exchanges | Market Cap >$10B | Week ending July 12, 2024

Top 10 Weekly Losers

TSX, NYSE & Nasdaq Exchanges | Market Cap >$10B | Week ending July 12, 2024

The views expressed herein by Beavis Wealth regarding a particular company, security, industry, or market sector should not be considered as an indication of trading intent of any investment funds managed by BMO Global Asset Management. Any reference to a particular company is for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell nor should it be considered as an indication of how the portfolio of any investment fund managed by BMO Global Asset Management is or will be invested. This social media network is an independent organization and is not affiliated with BMO Global Asset Management.

BMO Global Asset Management is a brand name under which BMO Asset Management Inc. and BMO Investments Inc. operate.