LAST CHANCE TO HAVE YOUR QUESTIONS ANSWERED

For those of you following along with our 12-Part series on Retirement planning, I’ll be recording this month’s podcast with Adam Bornn this coming week, so if you want to be part of our “Answering Your Questions” segment, time is of the essence. Simply ask your question in the video’s comment section, and we’ll answer it this week.

Watch Episode 2: Two Pieces, One Puzzle

Listen to Episode One podcast here: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

The Week in Review

Weekly Market Recap: U.S. and Canada

The trend continues with the fourth negative week in a row, and we saw all major indices slide lower again this week. We’ve got trade tensions, we’ve got economic worries, and shaky investor sentiment is keeping the pressure on. There were a few moments of recovery, but overall, the mood stayed bearish, and even with Friday’s rally, stocks couldn’t shake off the losses.

The TSX held up better than most, dipping just 0.68%. The S&P 500 fell 2.27%, and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 2.46%. The Dow Jones took the biggest hit, down 3.07% for the week.

Major Economic Stories

From an economic standpoint this week, it was about rate cuts, inflation updates, and growing trade tensions.

Here’s what we learned this week.

Bank of Canada Cuts Rate Amid Trade Concerns

The Bank of Canada lowered its key interest rate by 25bps to 2.75%, as expected.

The rate cut continues Canada’s ongoing effort to support economic growth. While past cuts have boosted activity, there are serious concerns are about slowing momentum ahead. Trade tensions with the U.S. and ever-shifting tariff threats are clouding the outlook, and business confidence is taking a hit.

• The rate cut brings the total reduction to 225bps since June 2024.

• Q4 economic growth exceeded expectations but is expected to slow.

• U.S. trade tensions are weighing on business sentiment.

• Inflation is projected to rise toward 2.5% as tax credits end.

• Read the Full Release

U.S. Inflation Cools

U.S. inflation slowed to 2.8% in February, easing from January’s 3%.

The latest data suggest inflation is cooling, but not without some bumps. Energy costs declined, helping the headline figure, but food prices ticked up slightly. Core inflation also eased, a welcome relief, but consumer concerns about rising prices are still growing.

• Energy costs fell 0.2% after a brief uptick in January.

• Food inflation edged up to 2.6% from 2.5%.

• Core inflation dropped to 3.1%, its lowest since April 2021.

• Monthly CPI rose 0.2%, slowing from January’s 0.5% increase.

• Read the Full Release

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Hits 2-Year Low

U.S. consumer sentiment fell sharply to 57.9 in March, the lowest since 2022.

High uncertainty around economic policy and inflation weighed on consumers, and this has driven down sentiment for the third month in a row. Expectations for the future took the hardest hit, and concerns about inflation are rising sharply.

• Consumer sentiment dropped from 64.7 in February.

• Expectations for future conditions fell to 54.2.

• Year-ahead inflation expectations surged to 4.9%.

• Five-year inflation expectations climbed to 3.9%.

• Read more here.

Key Takeaways From this Week’s Economic News

Bank of Canada’s Rate Cut: Relief or Risk?

The Bank of Canada’s latest rate cut to 2.75% is a calculated move to keep economic momentum alive, but the timing is tricky. On one hand, the rate cuts since June 2024 have clearly supported growth, evidenced by a stronger-than-expected fourth quarter. But we’re living through rising trade tensions and uncertainty from the U.S., and there’s a real risk that this relief might not last. Businesses are already feeling the pressure from fluctuating tariffs, and that’s likely to dampen investment and hiring decisions.

My bigger concern is inflation. According to the Bank’s statement, inflation is expected to creep back toward 2.5%. Core inflation is cooling, but the expected rise in headline inflation will complicate future rate decisions. If trade conflicts escalate, the Bank of Canada might find itself walking a fine line between supporting growth and controlling price pressures. For now, it’s a wait-and-see moment, and the path ahead looks anything but smooth.

U.S. Inflation Eases, But Is It Enough?

A dip in U.S. inflation to 2.8% is no doubt a welcome sign, but it doesn’t quite tell the whole story. Energy prices gave the biggest boost to the numbers, but food inflation ticked higher, and that hits consumers where it hurts most. Plus, while core inflation slowed, it’s still above the Fed’s comfort zone. The month-over-month CPI also suggests that price pressures are easing, but it’s not a clean break from the higher levels we’ve seen.

Watch my YouTube report on this here: https://youtu.be/HQU4q8M5aDs

The challenge here is whether this cooling trend sticks, which is complicated by the fact that global trade tensions are still high. If tariffs start pushing costs higher again, we could see inflation rebound. For now, it’s a case of cautious optimism. Progress is being made, but the road to stability feels far from certain.

Consumer Sentiment Drops: A Warning Signal?

I have a feeling the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey isn’t as widely read as I feel it should be, but it’s something that I certainly review every month.

The latest report shows a sharp drop in U.S. consumer sentiment, now at a two-year low, and that’s a red flag. When people start feeling uneasy about the economy, it tends to show up in spending patterns, and that can ripple through the broader market. It goes back around to concerns about inflation and economic uncertainty weighing on confidence, and it’s not just about the present; expectations for the future have taken an even bigger hit.

One thing that stood out to me in this report is the spike in long-term inflation expectations. When people start anticipating higher costs, they adjust their behavior, which can actually fuel the inflation cycle. That’s a signal that more needs to be done to stabilize confidence. If consumer sentiment keeps falling, we could be looking at weaker demand in the months ahead, and that would challenge even the most aggressive growth strategies.

THIS WEEK’S POLL QUESTION
(Results in Next Week’s Newsletter)

Gold has been the shiny object lately, with the precious metal hitting the $3,000/oz price for the first time ever. I have an article about gold below, and I’m curious as to whether you invest in gold as a hedge, and especially now with the price at an all-time high, would you?

Let us know where you stand!

LAST WEEK’S POLL RESULTS

Almost two thirds of our readers don’t think the Liberal Government’s $6B support package will be enough to fight off the effects of the U.S. Tariff’s. A lot of that will depend on how much the war escalates, and whether the new Canadian PM can bring some stability to the equation. Thanks to everyone who voted!

Comments of the Week

👎 No

"For a long-term fix Canadians must open their eyes and accept the fact that this has to be a permanent fix. Yes we must help those effected by these illegal tariffs. We must build our economy based on equal partnerships of our FTA’s with Europe, Asia & S. America. No longer do we need a partner that we can never trust again and who is only interested in their own selfish reasons. The World will survive, together without the US we build strong economies, strong military commitments, strong political friendships, and strong support of each other.

Our future is NOW not tomorrow.

Our governments must work to eliminate the provincial tariff's, build the pipelines that are required to move our oil & gas to Europe and Asia. Thank you. - entender1012

POLITICS
Mark Carney Sworn in as Canada's New Prime Minister

• Mark Carney becomes Canada's 24th Prime Minister amid U.S. trade tensions.

• His first major move was eliminating the consumer carbon tax.

• He aims to navigate Canada through the trade war and grow the economy.

• Carney plans to meet European leaders to discuss security and trade.

Mark Carney officially stepped into the role of Canada’s 24th Prime Minister on Friday, a shift in leadership just as the country faces escalating trade tensions with the U.S. Carney, a former central banker, replaces Justin Trudeau and inherits an economy struggling with tariff threats and political uncertainty. His initial focus is on steering Canada through this turbulent period, while at the same time preparing for an anticipated federal election.

Job One: Trade Tensions

Carney didn’t waste any time getting down to business, and he scrapped the federal consumer carbon tax right out of the gate. Day one, as the politicians like to say. He also signaled a commitment to expanding access to global energy markets and breaking down international trade barriers and he struck a pragmatic tone regarding relations with U.S. President Trump, emphasizing cooperation despite the current tensions.

Leadership Shake-Up and Next Steps

Carney introduced a leaner cabinet, with key figures like François-Philippe Champagne taking over as Finance Minister. The cabinet is tasked with navigating both domestic economic challenges and the intensifying trade conflict. Carney's immediate international plans include meetings with European leaders to strengthen alliances and discuss security concerns. While his approach to the Trump administration is measured, he dismissed recent annexation talk as "crazy," reinforcing Canada’s sovereignty stance.

Read the Full Story here.

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SADNESS
Trump’s Annexation Talk Mirrors Putin’s Playbook

• Trump’s rhetoric about annexing Canada echoes Putin’s past claims on Ukraine.

• Themes of economic benefit and security are central to Trump’s argument.

• Canadian officials are concerned about the implications for sovereignty.

• The rhetoric is straining Canada-U.S. relations and NATO alliances.

I debated and anguished this week as I was preparing my thoughts for this newsletter. After considering the pros and cons, I decided I’d include this story, although I fully acknowledge it’s more political than financial. Thank you for bearing with me.

U.S. President Trump’s recent remarks about annexing Canada really caught my attention, and in particular his more recent comments drawing comparisons to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s pre-invasion rhetoric about Ukraine. Trump’s comments, which frame annexation as economically and strategically beneficial, have unsettled Canadian officials and raised alarms about the long-term stability of Canada-U.S. relations.

Echoes of Past Conflicts

Trump’s arguments, which are mostly focused on economic subsidies, trade deficits, and security concerns, are eerily similar to Putin’s justification for invading Ukraine. He claims Canadians’ want to become part of the U.S. and comments about Canada’s border being "artificially drawn" have deepened worries about the seriousness of these remarks. I understand that some of my fellow Canadians dismiss the rhetoric as political posturing, but this type of language, even if not acted upon, erodes trust and stability.

A Growing Diplomatic Divide

We’re already seeing the tension affecting Canada’s foreign policy strategies and NATO alliances. Canadian officials are trying to figure out how to respond diplomatically while maintaining national sovereignty. The comments have also stirred concerns about broader geopolitical shifts, as Trump hints at closer ties with Russia. For Canada, the challenge lies in reinforcing our autonomy while navigating an increasingly unpredictable relationship with its closest neighbor. I’ll just say this is very unsettling.

Read the full sad, alarming and unsettling story here.

MARKET WARNINGS
Dow Theory Flashes Bearish Signal for Stocks 

• Dow Theory indicator is signaling trouble for U.S. stocks.

• Transportation stocks have slumped 19% from their peak.

• Economic concerns and trade tensions are weighing on market sentiment.

• Analysts warn that the bearish trend could continue.

A century-old market indicator, the Dow Theory, is signaling trouble for investors. The theory suggests that market strength is confirmed when both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average move in the same direction. Currently, both are slumping, with transportation stocks nearing bear-market territory after a 19% decline since November.

Market Sentiment Turning Cautious

This downturn is indicative of broader concerns about the economy. We’re seeing weaker demand forecasts from airlines and retailers, and when you couple that with ongoing uncertainty from Trump’s tariff policies, you end up with pessimism. The broader stock market has also struggled, with industrials and consumer sectors showing significant weakness. To my eyes, these signals as a reason for caution, and I think it’s too early to rule out that deeper market corrections ahead.

What’s Next for Investors?

With both Dow indexes moving lower, technical strategists argue it's a sign that the market’s primary trend is shifting. The transportation sector’s struggles highlight concerns about consumer demand and economic growth. As long as these uncertainties persist, investors should be prepared for more volatility in the months ahead. For now, adopting a defensive stance is a reasonable approach, while we watch for signs of stabilization.

Read the Full Story here.

PRECIOUS METALS
Gold Hits Record High as Markets Wobble

• Gold prices surpassed $3,000 per troy ounce for the first time.

• Market anxiety and trade tensions are driving the surge.

• Analysts expect gold prices to stay strong amid uncertainty.

• Investors are turning to gold as a safe-haven asset.

I’ve never been a huge gold guy, but it’s hard to ignore these days. Gold has hit historic highs recently as investors are clearly looking for safety in the face of growing global uncertainty. Spot gold prices reached an all-time high of $2,988 per troy ounce, with futures briefly surpassing the $3,000 mark. The rally is being driven by anxiety over Trump’s aggressive trade policies, (so what’s new?) which have fueled concerns about inflation and economic instability.

Why the Surge?

Historically, investors have flocked to gold during periods of turmoil, and today’s climate fits the bill. The unpredictable nature of tariff policies and fears of a prolonged trade war have made gold an attractive option. Gold’s rise is also being supported by strong demand from central banks and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Will the Rally Last?

This is where the rubber hits the road. I actually thought of a former client I worked with who always joked about the best time to sell gold was when he was buying, and vice versa. While gold has proven resilient so far, its price is also notoriously volatile. That volatility is the main reason I’ve rarely held much in my portfolio. Current trends support higher prices, but any shift in market sentiment could trigger a pullback, and precious metal pullbacks tend to be sharp and severe. Still, with broader market confidence falling and inflation concerns lingering, gold remains a favored choice for those seeking a hedge.

Read the Full Story Here.

OTHER NEWS FROM THE PAST WEEK

Reselling Taylor Swift Tickets Could Trigger Tax Bills
Canadians reselling Taylor Swift tickets may face unexpected tax bills. New CRA guidelines suggest profits from reselling tickets could be considered taxable income, potentially catching some sellers off guard.

Tariffs Threaten Kentucky Bourbon Industry
Kentucky’s bourbon industry is bracing for impact as new U.S. tariffs could hit global exports. Industry leaders warn that tariffs may shrink international sales and jeopardize local distilleries' growth prospects.

Hudson's Bay to Liquidate Entire Business
Hudson's Bay plans an immediate liquidation starting next week, aiming to conclude by June 15 due to limited liquidity. The company continues to seek additional capital to avoid a full shutdown.

Canada Needs to Impose Export Bans, Cut Taxes Amid Trade War: Rosenberg
Economist David Rosenberg suggests Canada should consider selective export taxes or bans on items critical to U.S. industries in response to tariffs. He also advocates for aggressive tax cuts, including eliminating capital gains tax.

Delaware Weighs Corporate Law Overhaul After Musk Exit
Following Elon Musk’s move to Texas, Delaware is considering corporate law changes to maintain its appeal as a corporate hub. Texas is simultaneously proposing measures to attract more incorporations.

Counter-Tariffs Could Challenge Canadian Industries, Says Desjardins
Desjardins warns that Canadian industries could face reduced U.S. demand and increased supply costs due to counter-tariffs, creating significant operational challenges.

Vancouver's Housing Market More Resilient Than Toronto's, Says TD
According to TD Economics, Vancouver’s housing market is better positioned to weather economic turbulence compared to Toronto, with stronger fundamentals and outlook.

Great Recession: A Visual Look Back
A photo gallery revisiting key moments of the Great Recession, capturing the global economic impact and significant milestones from that period. 

Did you know that Procter & Gamble's iconic Ivory soap was born from a happy accident? Back in the 1880s, a worker reportedly left a soap-mixing machine running too long, whipping extra air into the batch. Instead of tossing the bubbly result, P&G decided to sell it, and customers loved how it floated in water, making it easier to find in the bath. This serendipitous mistake led to the creation of Ivory, the "soap that floats," becoming one of P&G's most enduring products.

Market Movers

S&P 500 Returns | Week At-a-Glance

TSX Returns | Week At-a-Glance

Note: Thank you to everyone that voted last week. The Heat Maps are here to stay!

Top 10 Weekly Gainers

Top 10 Weekly Losers

10 Most Overbought Stocks

10 Most Oversold Stocks

The Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) can provide a signal that suggest a stock is either overbought or oversold.
📈A stock that has an RSI over 70 is considered to be in “overbought” territory. This might suggest that the stock is due for a pullback, however it is not a recommendation to sell.
📉A stock that is trading with an RSI below 30 is considered to be in “oversold” territory. This might suggest that the stock is due for a recovery, however it is not a recommendation to buy. Always perform your own due diligence.

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