The Week in Review

Weekly Market Recap: U.S. and Canada

Hoping for a recovery this week? As the old saying goes, don’t shoot the messenger. Like last week, all the major North American indices faced a steep, broad-based selloff. We saw an honest attempt of a rebound mid-week, but the downward pressure was too strong, and it kept the markets in negative territory.

Looking at the numbers, the Nasdaq 100 took the biggest hit, dropping 3.27%, while the S&P 500 wasn’t far behind, losing 3.10%. The Dow Jones fell 2.37%, showing slightly more resilience, while the TSX declined 2.44%.

Major Economic Stories

The latest employment data from Canada and the U.S. painted a mixed picture, with Canada’s job market holding steady while the U.S. saw rising unemployment. Job growth in both countries fell short of expectations.

Here’s what the numbers told us this week.

Canada’s Unemployment Holds Steady

The Canadian job market remained stable in February, with unemployment unchanged.

The unemployment rate in Canada stayed at 6.6% in February, defying expectations of an increase. A decline in both unemployed individuals and labour force participation helped keep the rate steady. Employment growth was minimal though, and it looks like the labour market may be losing steam.

• Unemployment rate held at 6.6%, below the expected 6.7%.

• Number of unemployed individuals dropped by 17,900 to 1.473 million.

• Labour force participation rate declined to 63.5%, a four-month low.

• Employment rose by only 1,100, missing the 20,000 forecast.

• Read the Full Release

U.S. Unemployment Rises

The U.S. jobless rate ticked up slightly in February, exceeding expectations.

The U.S. unemployment rate climbed to 4.1% from 4.0%, a further sign of softening labour conditions. A decline in both employment and participation suggests that job market resilience may be weakening.

• Unemployment rate increased to 4.1%, higher than the expected 4.0%.

• The number of unemployed rose by 203,000 to 7.05 million.

• Employment declined by 588,000 to 163.31 million.

• Labour force participation rate fell to 62.4%.

• Read the Full Release

U.S. Job Growth Slows

The U.S. added 151,000 jobs in February, below expectations of 160,000.

Job gains were concentrated in healthcare, financial activities, and transportation, while losses were seen in retail trade and government employment. The effects of federal spending cuts and tariffs may further pressure the labour market in the coming months.

• 151,000 jobs were added, below the 160,000 forecast.

• Healthcare led job growth with 52,000 new positions.

• Federal government employment fell by 10,000.

• Retail trade lost 6,000 jobs, while manufacturing saw little change.

• Read more here.

Key Takeaways From this Week’s Economic News

Canadian Labor Market Shows Signs of Cooling
At first glance, Canada’s unchanged 6.6% unemployment rate might seem reassuring, but when you dig a bit deeper, the details point to underlying weakness. The drop in unemployed individuals was matched by a lower participation rate, meaning fewer people were actively looking for work. That’s not a sign of a strong labour market—it's more of a red flag that workers may be exiting altogether.

The fact that job growth came in at just 1,100 versus an expected 20,000 adds to the concern. Participation is now at a four-month low, and it’s possible that economic uncertainty or shifting demographics are playing a role. If this trend continues, it could put pressure on wage growth and consumer spending, which would have broader economic implications.

This feels like a moment to watch rather than panic. A cooling labour market doesn’t necessarily mean a downturn, but if employment growth remains this weak, we could see a shift in consumer confidence and spending patterns. That could eventually spill into GDP growth and inflation.

U.S. Unemployment Creeps Higher—Is This a Warning Sign?

The rise in U.S. unemployment to 4.1% might seem minor, and a few analysts have said just that, but it's notable because it comes alongside a drop in employment. The loss of 588,000 jobs suggests broader softness, and when you combine this with a lower participation rate, it adds up to plenty of underlying labour market stress. The increase in the U-6 unemployment rate to 8.0%—which includes discouraged workers and involuntary part-timers—adds to the concern.

As with the Canadian reports, this isn't a crisis yet, but the labour market is clearly softening. If hiring continues to slow, it could put pressure on the Fed’s rate-cut timeline. A weaker job market could give them more reason to ease policy, but if inflation remains sticky, they’ll be in a tough spot balancing employment and price stability.

I don’t think we’re at a breaking point yet, but I am seeing some red flags. The fact that employment is dropping while unemployment is rising says we could be at an inflection point. If layoffs accelerate (and I suspect they will) we might be looking at a much weaker second half of the year.

Job Growth Misses Again, Government Cuts Loom Large

February’s 151,000 job gains in the U.S. came in short of expectations and was another month of sluggish employment growth. While some sectors added jobs, losses in the federal government and retail sectors suggest that policy changes and economic conditions are taking a toll. The federal job cuts, in particular, reflect the early impact of spending reductions, and more layoffs are likely to follow.

Another point to watch is the effect of tariffs. Trade disruptions could weigh on manufacturing and supply chains, leading to slower hiring in those sectors. If consumer demand weakens in response to higher prices, retail and hospitality could take further hits as well.

This is one of those moments where economic policy is starting to show up in the labour market. Government job cuts don’t happen in isolation—they ripple through the economy, sort of a death by a thousand cuts type of thing. If spending cuts and tariffs continue to weigh on hiring, we’ll see these slow job numbers persist, and that’s not great news for growth.

THIS WEEK’S POLL QUESTION
(Results in Next Week’s Newsletter)

My lead story today is the support package the Canadian government has announced to help Canadian businesses in the face of the U.S. Tariff onslaught. $6 billion is no small number, but is it enough?

Let us know where you stand!

LAST WEEK’S POLL RESULTS

Another strong demonstration of Canadian pride this week, with 84% of responders saying they would not support Canadian companies relocating under the pressure of U.S. tariffs.

Comments of the Week

👎 No

“No definitely not. They would now be a US companies selling US products. We should not only stop buying US goods but also stop using US stores. Walmart takes 2 billion or more per year out of Canada, Costco about the same, other US companies that should be boycotted are Best Buy, Home Depot. These companies take huge profits out of Canada whether you buy Canadian or not. The great orange Iguana has proven once again that politicians & diapers must be changed often and for the same reason.
Remember we must control our fear or our fear will make us stupid.” - entender1012

“I really need a "maybe" answer. For some of my portfolio invested in stocks like ENB - if they decide to relocate, I wouldn't necessarily liquidate everything right away depending on the capital gains and tax hit for non-registered. Would I continue to buy more? NO. I would look for businesses that invest in Canadian workers. Like the majority of Canadians, I'm avoiding the purchase of US products as much as I can. My future travel plans will avoid the US.” - syoungconsultinginc

“I think Canada should stop all exports, including Power and Oil. Seek alternative buyers and then when Donald calls to negotiate, and he will, we approach negotiations as an all or nothing deal. If Donald wines about Canada being unfair we walk and only short term contracts giving Canada the right to seek alternative buyers.” - steveblackthorne

“I'd prefer Canadian companies evaluate their full market potential without creating jobs for Americans. AMERICA can sort themselves out.” - skarkez

“That would not be supporting Canadians.” - jean-claude

“The fact that companies are even thinking this says a lot.” - michelleepereira

“Trump problem will be over in few years. Canada is great.” - nathan1siva

“What happens to Canadians and their jobs left behind?” - janisgotbass

LEAD STORY
Canada Unveils $6B in Business Tariff Support

• Canada announced a $6B aid package to counter U.S. tariffs.

• $5B allocated to help exporters find new markets outside the U.S.

• Trump threatens more tariffs on Canadian dairy and lumber.

• Temporary changes to EI rules aim to support affected workers.

In the face of U.S. President Donald Trump escalating trade tensions, the Canadian government has unveiled a $6 billion relief package for businesses and workers. The measures are designed to support exporters, provide financial aid to affected industries, and cushion workers from potential layoffs.

A Multi-Billion-Dollar Response

The government’s plan includes $5 billion to help exporters find alternative markets beyond the U.S., conforming with recent comments that Canada is preparing for long-term trade disruptions. Another $500 million in loans will be made available to businesses directly hit by the tariffs, while $1 billion is being injected into agricultural financing programs.

Trump’s Tariff Moves Keep Canada on Edge

It’s a full-time job trying to keep track of the seemingly hour-by-hour tariff threats. Trump did pause some tariffs until April, but now he’s threatening fresh duties on Canadian dairy and lumber. The U.S. already imposes anti-dumping duties on softwood lumber, but additional tariffs would put further strain on the industry. Widespread U.S. tariffs could lead to significant job losses in Canada, with the auto, agriculture, and forestry sectors being amongst the hardest hit.

The Uncertain Future of Canada-U.S. Trade

The federal government has signaled it’s prepared to take further action if needed, but businesses remain in limbo. If Trump follows through with his latest threats, Canada could retaliate with its own tariffs, potentially escalating the trade dispute even further. For now, the only thing predictable is unpredictability.

Read the Full Story here.

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JOBS, PT 1.
Canada’s Weak Jobs Report: BoC Rate Cut Odds

• Canada added just 1,100 jobs in February, well below the 20,000 forecast.

• The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.6%.

• Trade uncertainty is weighing on hiring decisions.

• Rate cut odds for next week’s BoC meeting rose to 85%.

Canada’s labour market stalled in February, with job gains barely registering and the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.6%. This was the last major economic report before the Bank of Canada’s next interest rate decision this coming Wednesday, and markets are now overwhelmingly betting on a rate cut.

A Sudden Shift in Market Expectations

Before the jobs report, traders saw a 50% chance of a BoC rate cut next week. That jumped to 76% and has now climbed to 85%, according to analysts. The weak labour data has reinforced expectations that the Bank will ease policy to support economic growth.

Which Sectors Are Feeling the Impact?

Retail and wholesale trade saw the biggest employment gains, adding 51,000 jobs, while finance, real estate, and insurance added 16,000. That’s where the good news ends. Professional and technical services employment dropped by 1.6%, and transportation and warehousing fell by 2.1%. The most obvious cause in these sectors is trade uncertainty, especially the on-again, off-again, on-again tariffs fiasco.

As noted, a Bank of Canada rate cut this week seems highly likely.

Read the Full Story here.

JOBS, PT 2
U.S. Job Growth Slows, Fed Speculation Rises 

• The U.S. added 151,000 jobs in February, below the 160,000 forecast.

• Unemployment edged up to 4.1% from 4.0%.

• Layoffs surged to the highest levels since 2020.

• Market focus shifts to potential Fed rate cuts.

February’s U.S. jobs report exposed a cooling labour market, with job growth missing expectations and the unemployment rate up slightly. Hiring did remain positive, but the pace is clearly slowing, and this raises fresh questions about whether the Federal Reserve might accelerate rate cuts.

Government Layoffs Begin to Bite

Probably the most concerning trend is the spike in layoffs, which reached their highest level since 2020. The biggest cuts came in the federal government, where employment fell by 10,000. And, this surely doesn’t yet capture the full effect of job losses ordered by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), meaning future reports could show even greater labour market stress.

Will the Fed Act?

The Fed has taken a cautious stance about cutting rates, citing inflation concerns, but this report strengthens the argument for easing policy. The upcoming Consumer Price Index report this Wednesday will be key—if inflation is cooling, the Fed may have more room to cut rates sooner rather than later. Mark March 12th on your calendars.

Read the Full Story here.

ICONIC CANADIAN COMPANIES
Hudson’s Bay Files for Creditor Protection

• Hudson’s Bay, Canada’s oldest retailer, filed for creditor protection.

• The company cites weak consumer spending and trade tensions.

• 80 store locations remain open, with efforts to restructure.

• A $16M emergency loan will help cover payroll and operations.

Admittedly not the most financially impactful current news story to our readers, but I have to include the Hudson’s Bay Co. story this week. The 354-year-old department store chain has filed for creditor protection as it struggles to survive amid declining foot traffic, consumer spending pullbacks, and trade uncertainty. The retailer says it is looking for ways to restructure while keeping its stores operational.

Purely anecdotal, but we were in Vancouver this past week and my wife went out for a window-shopping stroll. When she got back she commented on how shabby the iconic downtown Bay store was looking, and the next day this news broke. (Thinking of hiring her as a consultant to identify short-selling opportunities. 🫰)

A Long Road to Recovery

Hudson’s Bay has faced years of financial struggles, and has closed several locations and laid off staff. The new U.S. tariff threats created uncertainty that derailed efforts to secure outside investment. The company says a $16 million emergency loan will help keep operations running as it looks for further funding.

The Future of Canada’s Oldest Retailer

With 80 store locations and ownership of Saks Fifth Avenue and Saks Off 5th in Canada, Hudson’s Bay remains a major player in retail. But competition is fierce, and whether the Bay can successfully restructure or face deeper cuts is yet to be seen. We may be witnessing the beginning of the end for one of Canada’s most iconic retailers.

Read the Full Story Here.

OTHER NEWS FROM THE PAST WEEK

Total pay for Big Six bank CEOs Up Again
In what was a volatile year in banking, total CEO compensation at Canada’s six largest banks increased to $74.5 million. RBC, CIBC, and National Bank leaders saw major pay hikes, but TD and BMO CEOs took significant pay cuts due to financial struggles and regulatory issues.

How House Sitting is Helping Retirees Travel the World
A growing number of retirees are turning to house sitting as a way to explore the world affordably. By caring for homes and pets while homeowners are away, retirees can enjoy free accommodations in desirable locations, stretching their travel budgets further.

Elon Musk is Learning his Haters Hate his Tesla Cars Too
Elon Musk’s personal controversies are beginning to impact Tesla’s brand perception. As political polarization grows, some consumers are turning away from Tesla—not because of the cars themselves, but because of Musk’s increasingly divisive public image.

Bare Trust Filing Fiasco Led to 'Wasted Time and Effort': CRA Watchdog
The CRA’s handling of new bare trust filing rules has been called a “fiasco” by Canada’s taxpayer watchdog. The unclear regulations forced thousands of Canadians to file unnecessary paperwork, overwhelming the tax system and wasting resources.

Consumer Boycotts Continue
Companies across multiple industries are facing sustained consumer boycotts over political and ethical concerns. From fast food chains to major fashion brands, socially conscious shoppers are using their spending power to influence corporate behavior.

Way back in 1978, Loblaw’s launched the "No Name" brand, featuring products in plain yellow packaging with simple black text. The idea was to offer quality goods without the flashy branding, and it turned out to be a hit. Fast forward to 2019, and Loblaw decided to have some fun with this minimalist approach. They rolled out a cheeky advertising campaign that played up the brand's simplicity, with ads stating things like, "We don't have a single item under $2. We have 300." They even decked out Toronto's Union Station in the brand's signature yellow, labeling everyday items in the station with generic descriptions like "Bench" or "Escalator." It was a playful nod to their straightforward branding, and people loved the humor and honesty of it all.

Market Movers

S&P 500 Returns | Week At-a-Glance

TSX Returns | Week At-a-Glance

Note: Thank you to everyone that voted last week. The Heat Maps are here to stay!

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The Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) can provide a signal that suggest a stock is either overbought or oversold.
📈A stock that has an RSI over 70 is considered to be in “overbought” territory. This might suggest that the stock is due for a pullback, however it is not a recommendation to sell.
📉A stock that is trading with an RSI below 30 is considered to be in “oversold” territory. This might suggest that the stock is due for a recovery, however it is not a recommendation to buy. Always perform your own due diligence.

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